Wednesday, July 04, 2007

Don't trust the experts

This post from Jihad Watch reminds me of a feasibility study I had to review for my old company. The study pertains to the establishment of a flat glass factory somewhere in Laguna and the output of which would be exported to European countries. It had a definite marketing plan and the financials looked enticing. Additionally, attached was a note from a Certified Financial Analyst (CFA) stating the project was promising while repeating the stuff found in the short study. So, at first sight, the entire thing looked convincing. I mean who am I to argue against the opinions of a CFA?

So I decided to look at non-financial aspects of the business. I discovered that the operations of a flat-glass plant would be economical only if the market it serves is within 400 kilometers of the factory.

So to cut the story short, I proved that the study and the financial expert were wrong.

And the moral of the story is: be skeptical if an expert shares his expertise, especially if a large amount of money is involved.

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